A comprehensive assessment of 82 producers across four sectors in the wake of the Iran–US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed an estimated 10–11 million barrels per day from global oil supply — the largest disruption in history according to the IEA.
Brent crude surged past $120/bbl in March 2026, with Singapore jet fuel reaching $230/bbl — a 100%+ increase in one month.
Southeast Asia's upstream producers are windfall beneficiaries, while downstream refineries and petrochemical plants face severe feedstock shortages and margin compression.
Force majeure has been declared by Aster Chemicals (Singapore), PCS (Singapore), Chandra Asri (Indonesia), and SCG Chemicals (Thailand).
The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency; Thailand has banned fuel exports and is restarting decommissioned coal plants.
JP Morgan projects oil at $100/bbl in Q2 and $80/bbl in H2 2026, with a 60 basis point hit to global GDP growth. Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warns petrochemical shortages could take 275 days to unwind.
Explore the impact across four key sectors. Each company includes detailed ME exposure analysis, war impact assessment, and clickable source citations.
When assessed strictly through the lens of SE Asian operations, the upstream sector reveals a striking pattern: most producers rely on domestic crude and gas, making them largely insulated from direct ME supply disruptions. The primary beneficiaries are domestic producers like PETRONAS, Hibiscus Petroleum, PTTEP, PetroVietnam, and MedcoEnergi, who are seeing windfall revenues from surging oil prices without facing feedstock disruption. The key exceptions are Singapore-based entities with no domestic production that rely on imported feedstock.
This dashboard maps 82 producers across four sectors in Southeast Asia, assessing their exposure to the Middle East conflict based on feedstock sourcing, operational dependency, and publicly reported impacts. The indicator framework uses four categories: Negative (direct supply disruption, margin compression, or operational cuts), Minimum (limited or indirect exposure), Neutral (minimal or mixed impact), and Positive (windfall revenue, domestic insulation, or strategic advantage). All assessments are based on publicly available information and cited sources. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.